How Long is Quarantine Going to Last?
Since near the beginning of March 2020 a worldwide pandemic which led to a quarantine has kept people bottled away from social interaction regarding the safety of each person and those around. While some believe it should not end anytime soon and others wish it to end immediately, the end itself is unknown. Or is it? Multiple graphs and simulations lead to the common belief that the quarantine will end somewhere between next year and 2 years from now. The numbers vary and that is most likely due to the human factor, people can be unpredictable and can cause the viruses' effect to be extended or cause it to recede.
With people actively protesting the usage of precautions against this virus the risk of increasing numbers rises violently. There are very few examples of worldwide pandemics that wiped out entire portions of the human population, mainly being the Bubonic Plague, and the Influenza outbreak of 1918. During the Bubonic Plague era there was not enough wide spread communication to effectively combat the plague, as well basic hygiene and medicine were extremely primitive and did nothing but make the situation worse. Which is like our situation now and yet different, while our basic hygiene is much better, and there is worldwide communication but there is currently no medical cure or vaccine for the virus which gives us few options of combating it. The Bubonic Plague wiped out 60% of Europe's population alone, which at the time was 50 million people.
While the situation in 1918 is much more like our current, with basic hygiene being common and not having an effective means of combating the virus. The 1918 pandemic lasted for 2 entire years and again wiped out around 50 million people. But at that time the average population of the world was around 1.8 billion people, And now it is around 7.8 billion people. Additionally, in the fall of 1918 a secondary wave of the Spanish Flu struck which infected almost 500 million people and killed around 20 million.
This was caused by a mutation in the virus and people abandoning protective precautions, and the same could easily happen with covid. With the amount of population being several times the amount it was during those situations, who knows how catastrophic and long lasting Covid could be. But the duration of the quarantine heavily affects that, so quarantine lasting potentially until 2022 is understandable and if anything a short amount of time.